Apparently very few players were off limits this summer as big names filled the trade rumor-mill for days and weeks leading up to the Keeper deadline in the Association. Jokić, JJJ, Luka, Anthony Davis, Lebron, Steph Curry and D. Booker have all been rerouted to new cities, with new assignments and familiar challenges. Even young assets, once thought to be foundational pieces to growing franchises, fell victim to the ambitions of their former teams. Mobley, LaMelo, Cade, Giddey (just to name a few) are all with new franchises, eager to live up to their hype and generate hope for aspiring contenders.
We have seen big deals being made in previous off-seasons, but this year feels very unique. So what’s the cause for this unusually hot market? Let’s briefly examine the market forces at play fueling this arms race among the league superpowers:
Supply and Demand: With the new Bird Rights rule allowing teams to go into the season over the salary cap as luxury-taxed teams, we expected there might be a few more buyers in the trade market than usual. But teams initially seemed hesitant and unwilling to take on the pre-season tax penalty. While many were interested in shedding salary, only a few teams had the right assets to accomplish this goal. Among the top sellers were our newest franchises, the Van City Grizzlies and the Chicago Sunroofers. The new managers got right to business as soon as the trade market opened. Their combined moves this past month have already surpassed the number of trades their predecessors made within the past 9 seasons! That is not hyperbole.
Competition: The Amherst Speedsters were aggressively buying, compiling a scary collection of 1st round talent while seemingly scoffing at their projected tax bill. The Rucker Park Busters were next to make their move. They could’ve taken a subtle route and continued to build around their young and inexpensive pieces, but with a log jam at the Center position, they consolidated and added a lead guard in Luka Doncic. These moves marked the beginning of the arms race that would quietly and slowly ensue.
Despite paying the luxury tax in the past two seasons, the Gotham Great Danes have a reputation for being conservative spenders. But coming off of a third straight loss in the Association finals, ownership sent strict orders to the front office that they must stay committed to contending for a title. Watching rival teams load up on talent, doing nothing is, simply, not an option. Undoubtedly, the defending champion- Brooklyn Phoeniks, received the very same directives. Their acquisition of the #1 fantasy player for the past several seasons is plenty of proof.
Consumer preferences: Seems it was only a week ago when the Speedsters had bolstered their superstar lineup of Nikola Jokić, Anthony Davis, and Steph Curry, with Devin Booker and Jaren Jackson Jr. As of today only one of those names remain on the roster. Their high salaried stars have been exchanged for cheaper, younger players oozing with potential. Ultimately, their stars and scrubs build was traded in for a more patient and balanced approach to contention.
The same approach appears to have been taken by our new managers in Van City and Chicago. Luka and D. Booker were expected to compete for years together in Chicago, but bringing in Ja Morant, Josh Giddey, and LaMelo Ball to pair with, oft-injured stud, Zion Williamson presents a better fit for their timeline and long term plans.
In Van City, the price tags on JJJ and James Harden perhaps did not make sense for a franchise that was a 1st round exit in last year’s playoffs. Instead, they focused on getting more bang for their buck acquiring moderately priced building blocks in Evan Mobley, Jalen Williams, Jalen Duren, Pat Williams and Trey Murphy. A lot of this was also about bringing in your own guys. The Syracuse Sparrows, for example, found the opportunity to get one of their guys in Alperen Sengun.
League regulation: It would be difficult to argue that the new tax penalties have not influenced roster decisions. This was perhaps the biggest determinant in the sudden paradigm shift in Amherst. Additionally, much of this would not be possible without the Bird Rights clause which now allows teams to enter the season over designated salary cap. Gotham, Rucker Park, and Frankfurt are amongst those taking advantage of this new rule. We may see others join the club as the keeper deadline approaches.
Macroeconomic factors: The main ingredient here is salary inflation. This has been a factor for many years, but this year feels particularly harsh with the new inflation model. Names we did not expect to hit the market have suddenly become available. It remains to be seen who will be up for grabs in free agency, but I expect spending to be a lot more cautious given the heightened concern over retaining top talent for multiple seasons.
As the smoke clears and dust settles from this offseason, we can see some clear contenders emerging in the field. The Busters have added Luka, Booker, and Jaylen Brown, along with Wemby & Chet conjuring some unicorn magic. The Great Danes opened up their wallet to surround Joel Embiid with Los Angeles stars Lebron, Anthony Davis, and a returning PG-13.
Jokic makes his way to Brooklyn to join his Nuggets teammate Jamal Murray and young weapons in Claxton, Vassell, Scoot, and Jaden Ivey. Finally, Frankfurt joined the race grabbing Chef Curry to cook with their brigade of stars: Kyrie, Fox, and Antman.
Immediate contenders and future contenders have been delineated. Some of our moves will look genius, while others will be viewed with disgust. But what else will come out of this? Will we see any new team management norms?; perhaps this will usher in the age of super teams? Will there be any new schools of thought developed? Will the way we value our players or evaluate potential trades fundamentally change? At this point, there are more questions than answers, but one thing is clear to me- this off-season feels like one that we’ll look back on as a critical point in Association history.
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