Bums Navigating the Playoff Race: Insights and Predictions for the Stretch Run

Published by

on

Do you remember, after 3 weeks into the season, these bums celebrated a play-in championship? It seems oddly familiar. Read about where we were at in week 3
https://ufbball.com/2023/11/13/bums-through-3-weeks-of-nbdl/:

  1. Ross changes the team name to ‘Getting Dinn With It’ and in din-sh*** fashion has lost 6 out of his last 9 matchups, officially putting up the going-out-of-business sign last week.
  2. Ben is first in the division, and we are still clueless – is this team a bum or not? They’ve only lost 3 out of their last 9 matchups; (microscope, please), losses to InIt, Girth, and Walson. It makes you think this team is beating competitive teams. Let’s be clear, you are looking like the Dallas Cowboys! Respect is due; you are the #1 team. But if you want to dig yourself out of Bumville, we’re going to need to see more reputable wins. Week 14, 16, 17, 19, playing Himmy, Da Bum, Spike, and Sub-0 are your opportunities. Only 7 games above 8th place Gamma Squad; the time is now.
  3. Himmy Butlers is as overrated as they come. He has won 7 of his last 9 matchups but is cemented in 10th place. Let me say that again, he has only lost 2 out of his last 9 matchups, yet he has fallen in the standings; fantasy basketball can be wicked sometimes. The road to the playoffs includes Spike in Week 13, Ben in Week 14, Walson in Week 15, lukewarm if SBE is competitive come week 16 (actually, no he is not, 1 2 3 Cancun), Sub-0 in Week 17, Da Bum in Week 18. One word! Wowsers! I know one thing, Himmy better be well-rested because the time is now!
  4. Walson is currently a play-in team, sitting firmly in 9th place. Combine Speedsters and Da Bum tiss laying the smackdown in Weeks 5 and 7 left this team in a real precarious position. The embarrassing loss to tanking Chet, don’t fail me now in week 8. A players-only meeting happened, and since Week 8, they have gone on to win 9 out of 12 and are riding a 4 Wins Matchup streak. Walson’s schedule is manageable; competitive teams in the schedule include Himmy in Week 15, Sub-0 in Week 16, and Spike in week 18.
  5. Girth is sitting in 5th place, having won 6 out of his last 9 matchups. The look-ahead schedule is competitive; Weeks 15, 16, 17, 19 are against competitive teams. Maple RJ is one floor away from Jordan, so maybe anything is possible with this team? Although Curry and KD’s age have been showing lately!
  6. Spike Lee’s Diary beats who he needs to beat but struggles against the serious teams. And 100% accurate – my team, Sub-0, was not a serious team in week 10! Right now sitting in 4th, and 4.5 games from first, the next five out of 8 weeks are against competitive teams. Is this playoffs or consolidation?
  7. Sub-0 sitting first in Division 1 (name change coming for Division name), has won 6 of his last 9 matchups. He has done his best to limit his blowout losses. The look ahead, four out of the last 6 playoff matchups are competitive.
  8. InIt sits as the hottest team in NBDL, winning 7 consecutive matchups, Weeks 5-11, but then along came Sub-0 to freeze the win streak and give him his first loss since Walson defeated him in Week 4. Sitting in 6th in the standings with only three competitive teams left on the schedule, it seems stamped and ready for the playoffs.
  9. Speedsters are now in the 7th position, winners of their last 3, and their next 5 opponents have not been good. They finish the season schedule with 3 contenders. I’d consider them a lock for the playoffs and almost guarantee a move up the standings, given the weak schedule to close. Is this team good or bums? I don’t know; they have fared fairly so-so against the competitive teams thus far.
  10. Gamma Squad has slid into the 8th spot and is 7 games outside of first. Their season has been a series of runs; they won 6 straight matchups, then lost two, and are currently on a 3-matchup win streak, which is being put to the test against InIt. Only facing 3 competitive teams in the last 2 weeks of the playoffs, they have a strong chance to remain or move up in the standings.

Trade Report

Getting Dinn With It comes to terms with Sub-0 to send Kawahi Leonard in exchange for Derick Lively and Cam Johnson
  • Kawhi is 32.6 years old, often injury-riddled, and rest-managed. How many miles are left on his degenerate knee and body in general?
  • Since joining the Clippers in the 2019-20 season, Leonard has played 57, 52, 52 games in each regular season and is currently at 36 games for the 23-24 season. His average 9-cat rank since the 2019-20 season to now is 4, 6, 13, 6. Shifting our attention to total 9-cat ranks, where the quantity of games matters, is 18, 6, 9, 38, 5. When Leonard plays, he is a league winner, and despite not eclipsing 60 games in a season as a Clipper, he has regularly returned top 20 value! In a 20-team league, he is first-round value.
  • Sub-0 timeline has shifted with how well some of his young studs have perform so far to start the season. Tatum and especially Dame commanded they get another closer, a third star.Especially for dame, who knows how many seasons are left, and he wants a chance to win a championship?
  • Lively is 19.9 years old, a rookie center playing with two of the best players and playmakers in the NBA. Will the rookie build on his impressive start to his NBA career?Lively is currently ranked 97 per game and 133 in totals for 9-cat this season. He primarily gets his value from rebounds and blocks, and points on high FG%. So far this season, he is at 8.9 P/G, 7.8 R/G, 1.4 B/G, with a whopping 74% FG.Playing with Luka and Kyrie, Lively only has to focus on catching lobs and finishing around the paint, being a defensive anchor and glass cleaner.A player that has at least a decade left, potentially more if he can learn to shoot proficiently from the outside or develop playmaking skills.
  • Cam Johnson is playing some of the worst basketball of his career. One has to wonder, is it the handsome contract he signed this off-season or the hamstring injuries he battled to start slowing him down as he found his groove? Cam Johnson in the 22-23 season was ranked 55 per game as a Net over 42 games. This year, playing nearly similar minutes (29 minutes a game), he is ranked 127 over 33 games. The main reason is his shooting is struggling; his 2pt % is down from 55% to currently 43%, and his steals, which were 1.2 last year, are a pedestrian 0.8 steals per game. I’ve watched my share of Nets games, and I really don’t know what I’m watching when I see him; he’s so inconsistent. Anytime he seems to have a big game, I see him limping off the side to get checked by the medical staff.
  • GDW’s season took a free-for-all quickly, losing key contributors, leading them to fall in the middle teens of the playoff run. A smart move by him to buy down risk and get some upside and depth for next season.
Himmy Butlers Agrees to send Tyus Jones, Donte DiVincenzo, Deandre Ayton for Jarrett Allen and Cason Wallace
  • DominAyton is 25.5 years old and seems more interested in pressing hair than pressing his basketball career. His best fantasy season was his rookie season, where he ranked 34 and 37 for 9-cat average and totals, respectively. Technically, in his sophmore year he boosted up and served the 25-game ban, he was able to rank two spots up at #32 for average rank. So far into his Blazer career, he has been ranked 81 and 164 in average and total rank, respectively.Ayton has always been a 10-rebound player a game. The points seem to be capped at around 18 points a game. Threes? Forget about them. Assists? Who needs them? And steals? It looks like he is trying in Portland. The most frustrating stat category is that Ayton is allergic to blocks, blocking a little less than a shot a game. Ayton does bring a unique combination of elite FG% while being an above-average big man FT% shooter.The biggest question with Ayton is: Is Domin-Ayton motivated after receiving the bag? Can you trust him to read a weather report prior to a game? Will his next step be perming hair?
  • Donte and the Villanova Knicks are now a part of Spike! He is ranked 115 on the season, giving strong production in 3s and steals.
  • Tyus Jones, ranked 60 on the season, gives elite assists, steals, and FG%.Tyus + Donte >>> Cason in the short-term. Tyus, if traded to a contender or playing a backup role, would threaten his top-70 production.
  • Fro-Yo is 25.8 years old and is listed at 6 ft 9! Wow, this has to be wrong? Maybe the fro adds additional height? The Fro broke out in Cleveland where his last three seasons, including this one, have ranked 33, 33, and 32; consistency! For Totals around that span, he is ranked 42, 30, 56. Certainly, he is liable to miss some time each season.Fro is about a 15 points-per-game scorer, grabbing 10 rebounds, similar to Ayton. Fro has been getting those assists this year; maybe he gets more playmaking due to the extended absence of Mobley. He is at 3.0 assists per game. He is a respectable fantasy defender, generating 1 steal and 1 block a game, or as the new kids say, 2 stocks per game. His percentages are similar to Ayton, with elite FG% while being an above-average big for FT%. His turnovers are fewer than Ayton’s despite having double the assists Ayton has.There was buzz that JA’s time was up, and it very well might be so, but one thing guaranteed is in a 30-minute or so a night rule, he’s going to be backend 2nd round value (20 Team league).
  • Cason Wallace, I don’t have the time to dive into, but I’m bullish and think he will be good in real life and fantasy. Already getting good minutes in his rookie season; I think his role will blossom.
  • JA >> Ayton because JA plays and gives effort and The Land is competing in the short term. Ayton’s negative energy could be icy for a team looking to compete.

Playoff Predictions

  1. Ben’s Swag Team
  2. Da Bum Tiss
  3. Speedsters
  4. Sub-0 J
  5. In It 2 Win It V
  6. Spike Lee’s Diary
  7. Girth God
  8. Gamma Squad
  9. Walson
  10. Himmy Butler

I have confidence in the Top 5 teams making the playoffs, as long as none of those teams lose a top fantasy player for an extended period. While Ben could potentially fall down, Speedsters might also get hot down the stretch, taking advantage of weaker opponents. The play-in phase kicks off right around Spike Lee’s Diary, marking the beginning of ‘scary season.’ All teams ranked 6th and below will be fighting for their playoff lives, making it an entertaining and crucial 6 weeks to end the season!

Leave a comment